The State of ADCs 2026
Q2 2026
ADCs are being priced as biology businesses. The risk sits in chemistry, manufacturing, and capital structure. Ten chapters, approximately 60,000 words, two appendices. A structural read of the global antibody-drug conjugate sector through 2026 to 2028, written for operators making chemistry, manufacturing, capital, and clinical decisions inside the binding 36-month window before the chemistry-first re-rating closes.
Authored by
Byron Fitzgerald, Founder, ProGen Search
What This Report Covers
Maps the global antibody-drug conjugate sector across ten chapters covering chemistry, manufacturing, capital structure, and clinical strategy. Written for operators making partnership, capacity, valuation, and capital allocation decisions inside the 36-month window before the chemistry-first re-rating closes.
Constructed on a primary-source evidence base. Every numerical claim traces to an SEC filing, regulatory document, peer-reviewed clinical-transition analysis, disclosed transaction comparable, or named industry source. Where claims are directional rather than quantitatively settled, the language qualifies them. Where the modality breaks the analyst-default oncology benchmarks, the report names the new benchmark.
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$1,495
Three licence tiers for individuals, teams, and institutions.
Individual
Single reader
$1,495
Enterprise
One operating company
$5,995
Investor & Bank Licence
Banks and institutional investors
$14,995
Chapters
The Illusion of Interchangeability
Why the ADC deal rush priced antibodies, linkers, and payloads as interchangeable parts when the biophysics do not support it.
The Three-Chain Collision
Why ADC manufacturing is structurally hard and the capacity oligopoly cannot be expanded with capital alone.
The Toxicity Ceiling and Biological Constraints
The biophysics that govern dose-finding, payload class ceilings, and how chemistry failures present as biological failures.
Project Optimus and the Dose-Optimisation Crisis
How the FDA August 2024 guidance has rewritten clinical economics for venture-stage ADC sponsors.
Linker Evolution and the Next-Gen Payload Frontier
Where chemistry-first valuation is rewarded and where the next round of platform premiums will land.
Diagnostic Deficit
The companion diagnostic infrastructure gap that constrains target selection at scale.
CDMO Dynamics
The named tier structure across the elite ADC capacity oligopoly. Pricing power and the SafeBridge bid that begins at Series A.
Capital Allocation
The five DCF errors embedded in standard ADC valuation models and the resulting systematic mispricing.
Strategic Archetypes
The four operator archetypes competing across the next 36 months. Where each model wins and where each is structurally exposed.
36-Month Action Map
The six observable indicators that will sort the next three years across chemistry, capacity, capital, and clinical readouts.
From the report
99%
of an administered ADC dose stays in systemic circulation. Less than 0.1 percent reaches the solid tumour.
Phase I attrition concentrates here, not at the antigen. Fc-receptor uptake, macropinocytic clearance, and basal expression on healthy tissue govern the clinical readout, the dose ceiling, and where the 4 to 10 percent Risk Realisation Ratio band ends up paying out.
Who reads this and what they use it for
Operators and biotech CEOs
CEOs and operating leadership at biotech companies developing ADC programmes. Whether to license at a 4 to 10 percent Risk Realisation Ratio or hold through a self-funded readout.
Investors and corporate development
PE, VC, and Big Pharma corporate development teams modelling ADC valuations. Whether headline biobucks reflect committed capital or contingent optionality.
CDMO and manufacturing leadership
CDMO leadership planning capacity expansion and CMC teams matching QMS architecture to the Three-Chain Collision.
Byron Fitzgerald, Founder, ProGen Search
About the Author
Byron Fitzgerald
Byron Fitzgerald has spent more than 15 years in life sciences executive search and founded ProGen Search in 2024. He is a three-time founder, having previously bootstrapped a specialist consultancy from a standing start to 36 consultants. He has placed VP to C-suite leadership across Quality, MSAT, Technical Operations, CMC, Manufacturing, Regulatory, and Business Development functions for organisations ranging from pre-clinical biotechs to multinational CDMOs and radiopharma developers. Through retained search and commissioned intelligence work, he speaks daily with the C-suite, investors, PE/VC partners, and BD leaders who set strategy across this sector.
His published market intelligence on radiopharmaceutical manufacturing, CDMO capacity constraints, ADC execution risk, and advanced modality talent markets is read by C-suite leaders, institutional investors, and board members globally.
Choose your access
Three tiers, calibrated to how you intend to use the work.
Individual
$1,495
Single reader. Personal use within one company.
- Single named reader licence
- Full PDF report (approximately 120 pages, all 10 chapters, 2 appendices)
- Pipeline tracker by target antigen and payload class
- M&A and licensing transaction tracker (2023 to Q2 2026)
- Direct email access to Byron Fitzgerald for clarification questions
Enterprise
$5,995
Distribute across one operating company or strategy team.
- Full company licence covering all employees and majority-owned subsidiaries
- Full PDF report (approximately 120 pages, all 10 chapters, 2 appendices)
- Pipeline tracker by target antigen and payload class
- M&A and licensing transaction tracker (2023 to Q2 2026)
- Internal redistribution rights (intranet, shared drives, board packs)
- Priority email access to Byron Fitzgerald
Investor & Bank Licence
$14,995
Investment banks, institutional investors, and consulting firms citing the report in client materials.
- Full firm licence covering all investment professionals, analysts, and portfolio companies
- Full PDF report (approximately 120 pages, all 10 chapters, 2 appendices)
- Pipeline tracker by target antigen and payload class
- M&A and licensing transaction tracker (2023 to Q2 2026)
- Use in investor memos, client deliverables, due diligence reports, and committee papers
- Citation rights in pitches, transaction memos, and fund communications
- Priority email access to Byron Fitzgerald
By completing your purchase, you agree to our Purchase Terms.
Frequently asked questions
How is this different from sell-side coverage of the ADC sector?
Sell-side coverage rewards narrative and prices ADCs against general oncology benchmarks. This report applies a chemistry-first frame, names the specific PTRS misallocation, and treats biobucks as contingent optionality rather than committed capital. Every numerical claim traces to a primary source. Where claims are directional, the language qualifies them.
What is the methodology and how is it sourced?
Constructed across primary sources: SEC filings, peer-reviewed clinical-transition analyses, regulatory documents, disclosed transaction comparables, and named industry data. Every chapter was subjected to independent research sweeps and structured cross-verification. The pipeline tracker and M&A tracker appendices document the underlying transactions and assets directly.
Can I cite this in client memos and investment committee papers?
The Investor and Bank Licence carries citation rights in client-facing reports, pitches, and transaction memos with attribution to The State of ADCs 2026, ProGen Search. Enterprise and Individual licences permit internal use with source attribution; external citation requires the Investor and Bank Licence. See the Purchase Terms for the precise scope of each tier.
Ready when you are.
If your team is making ADC capital, capacity, or partnership decisions in 2026, the chemistry, the manufacturing oligopoly, and the deal architecture sit in the same problem space. This report is the operating manual.
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