The State of ADCs 2026: Early Access Extract
ADCs are being priced as biology businesses. This 15-page extract from ProGen Search's ADC briefing argues the risk actually sits in chemistry, manufacturing and capital structure, and sets out the ten findings and three named frameworks the full report uses to test that claim against the 2023 to 2026 deal record.
What this report answers
- Where does the real risk in an ADC programme sit: the antigen, or the chemistry?
- Do headline biobucks on an ADC licensing deal represent committed capital?
- Why can standard biologics CDMOs not pivot into ADC manufacturing?
- What has Project Optimus done to the cost of a venture-stage ADC trial?
- How should Big Pharma ADC positions be sorted, and on what basis?
- What does the full State of ADCs 2026 report cover, and who is it written for?
40.9%
the ADC Phase I-to-II transition rate the extract cites from the largest published clinical-transition analysis, set against a 52% general oncology benchmark.
$150-200m
the capital cost the briefing puts on a greenfield commercial-scale bioconjugation plant, ahead of roughly 30 months of validation before a first GMP lot.
What the analysis establishes
The four axes of mispricing
The extract states its thesis in a single line and then breaks it into four axes: chemistry, manufacturing, capital and clinical strategy. It establishes the implicit assumption the sector's deal architecture was built on, identifies which variable that assumption treats as dominant, and sets out the empirical record it uses to test it.
Where ADC attrition actually concentrates
The opening finding addresses the shape of the ADC attrition curve against a general oncology baseline, using published clinical-transition data. It establishes that the curve does not follow the oncology norm, locates the phase where the divergence sits, and works through what that does to any rNPV model built on modality-wide probability-of-success benchmarks.
Three production chains, one quality system
The manufacturing findings describe what ADC production requires physically: a biologic chain, a high-potency chain, and a conjugation step that inherits the failure modes of both, harmonised under a single quality management system. They set out the capital cost, validation timeline and supplier concentration that govern whether a biologics CDMO can enter the market at all.
What a headline deal value actually commits
The extract introduces a ratio that strips advertised deal value back to committed cash, applies it transaction by transaction across named ADC licensing deals from 2023 to 2025, and identifies the outlier. It then describes the structural mechanism it names the Bag-Holder Architecture, and the collapse it uses as the worked case study.
Clinical economics after Project Optimus
FDA's dose-optimisation guidance became operational in August 2024. The extract sets out what an Optimus-compliant Phase I/II programme now demands in trial design, escalation method and parallel CMC supply, what that does to the capital stack, and the unfunded gap it names the Extinction Window between venture runway and readout.
Frameworks, tiers, and what sits behind the extract
The closing sections define three named analytical frameworks with the readership each is built for, sort Big Pharma into tiers by manufacturing ownership rather than by scale, and lay out the ten-chapter structure, two appendices and trackers of the full 60,000-word report this extract is drawn from.
How it was built
Built from primary sources and stated as such. Clinical transition rates are taken from the largest published clinical-transition analysis and restated for the ADC modality; the inverted attrition curve itself is labelled as ProGen Search's own analysis of that data. Deal ratios are computed transaction by transaction from disclosed upfront cash against advertised headline value. Capacity and platform-acquisition figures come from ProGen Search's own 2024 to 2028 capex tracker and M&A tracker. The factual cutoff is Q2 2026, and the report qualifies its language where a number is directionally important but quantitatively thin.
Written for biotech CEOs and founders, investors and equity analysts, Big Pharma business development and corporate development teams, CDMO leadership, CMC and manufacturing leadership, and board members.
Contents
- A Note from ProGen Search
- The Central Thesis
- Ten Findings
- Three Named Frameworks
- What the Full Report Covers
- Who Should Read
Organisations covered
Gilead, Tubulis, Pfizer, Seagen, Daiichi Sankyo, AstraZeneca, Merck, GSK, Johnson & Johnson, Roche, Bristol Myers Squibb, Genmab, Novo Nordisk, Mersana, Day One, ADC Therapeutics, Ambrx, ProfoundBio, Lonza, WuXi XDC, Samsung Biologics, Piramal, Axplora, MilliporeSigma, Catalent
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The State of ADCs 2026
This is a 15-page extract. The full report runs to ten chapters and roughly 60,000 words, with a pipeline tracker by target antigen and payload class, a 2023 to Q2 2026 M&A and licensing tracker, and a 36-month action map.
See the full report →